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RSS订阅 最近Goolge中国相关治理层透露说，有意收购在中国进行一些收购，以提升中国公司的治理团队、技术……花旗银行集团分析师Mark Mahaney、Jason Brueschke昨天发表了一份研究报告，逐个分析了Google在华潜在的收购目标。
首先报告分析了Goolge有史以来进行并购的模式，认为，Google在华并购目标主要是有较强的技术研发实力或者拥有本地化的独特服务，在中国有几个收购目标将可以大幅度提高用户基础或者是网页流量。
结论是：Google要么收购独特的技术公司，要么收购对google现有业务本地化有帮助的公司。假如考虑的是已经上市的中国网络公司，有以下几个目标。
一、百度：报告认为，百度是显而易见的选择。团队上，李彦宏自己一个人就运营其了在中国的搜索业务，但是google不得不同时聘请两个人来做相同的事情。百度是中国搜索市场的领先者，实际上，Goolge需要百度多于百度需要Google，百度没有理由出售，中国政府也不大同意这种收购。结论是：Google宁愿与百度竞争，而不是收购它。
二、新浪：报告认为，新浪是最好的选择。新浪流量非常大，对Google有帮助，同时新浪搜索业务基本失败，与Google理论上正好互补。由于政策监管方面的问题以及新浪股权上的毒丸计划，收购难度相当大，假如收购新浪不超过10%的股份还是可行。同时，新浪与Google结成战略同盟的可能性相当大，即：新浪使用Google的搜索引擎服务。
三、51job：对百度进入中国在线招聘搜索市场帮助相当大。最近51job卖给日本Recruit公司15%股份，未来三年内，Recruit有可能增加到40%，收购难度增加，除非google与Recruit达成有关协议。
四、搜狐：搜狐网络资产很大，但是不可能。公司创始人公开宣称要打败百度、Google，出售的可能性不大，同时面临中国的政策监管方面问题。
五、网易：有可能性，但是可能性极小。主要业务是网络游戏，Google对网络游戏的爱好不大。
六、TOM：对google帮助不大。主要业务是无线业务，对google在华要完成的最急迫任务，基本上没有什么帮助。
Excerpts from a note published by Citigroup analysts Mark Mahaney and Jason Brueschke released yesterday:
Head of Google (GOOG) in China said that Google is open to using M&A in China as a way to grow its talent base, technology and portfolio.
Our reading of GOOG’s M&A history to date and its strategy is that the most likely M&A candidates in China would be small technology/R&D shops or unique localized applications. That said, there are several potential candidates that might offer distinct advantages in terms of increased user bases or expanded Web traffic.
We think Google is likely looking for companies with unique technology skills sets or companies that can help Google localize its offerings for the China market.
If Google were to depart from its practice of making primarily technology-based acquisitions, it is interesting to consider who, among publicly-listed Chinese Internet/Media companies, Google might consider acquiring:
Baidu.com Inc (BIDU): The Obvious Choice. The issues are likely to be: (1) Management resistance ?C Baidu founder Robin Li is the obvious person to run the China operations were such a deal to happen, but Google has hired two talented people to run its operations already; (2) Government resistance ?C While it is a generally held view that the Chinese government is reluctant to allow Sina (SINA) to be acquired, it is unclear if the Chinese government feels the same way about Baidu and the Search market. Our view is that a takeover of Baidu would meet significant government resistance; (3) Google needs Baidu more than Baidu needs Google ?C Baidu is the leader and appears to be pulling away from Google in China. As a result, there are fewer reasons for Baidu to sell, in our view. Nevertheless, Google already owns a small percentage of Baidu, purchased when Baidu was a private company, so a deal is not out of the question. Near-term, we expect Google to choose to compete with Baidu, rather than trying to take control of Baidu.
Sina (SINA): The Best Fit. Sina has tremendous Internet traffic that continues to grow. Google could benefit from this traffic. Moreover, Sina’s search engine has basically failed, meaning Sina is not likely to effectively monetize its traffic on its own via CPC Search anytime during the next several years, in our view. A deal would thus benefit each party significantly, and they could be natural allies similar to AOL and Google in the U.S. However, the Chinese government would likely prohibit Google taking a controlling stake in Sina. As a result, we believe the most likely result would be for Sina and Google to reach an agreement whereby Sina uses Google’s search engine to monetize its traffic in exchange for most of the revenues — perhaps 90% of the search revenues. It is possible that a small equity stake by Google ?C say 9.99%, which would not trigger the Sina poison pill ?C could cement the deal without being vetoed by Beijing. However, in our view, such an equity stake is not necessary for such a Sina-Google strategic partnership.
51job (JOBS): Leader in Online Classified Job Market. 51job would bring Google access to the dominant player in the online job market in China. While 70% of 51job’s revenues are print based, its online business and traffic is still the strongest in China, in our view. The #2 player, ChinaHR, is already controlled by Monster Worldwide, and hence is not available. 51job investors recently sold a 15% stake to Japan’s Recruit, with the option to take this stake to 40% over the next three years, which could make 51job a less attractive target for Google (unless an accommodation with Recruit could be reached).
文章地址: http://www.xinasp.com/html/wangzhanyunying/yumingxinwen/20060422/6584.shtml
tag： 收购 目标 潜在 分析 银行
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